投资现金流敏感性研究述评

大量的经验文献支持了流动性假说,认为内部现金流是影响公司投资的一个重要因素。文中基于信息不对称下的融资约束理论与自由现金流的代理成本假说,回顾了关于投资现金流敏感性存在及其根源的国内外相关研究成果,梳理了该领域的研究脉络,并对主要结论进行了总结与评论。对文献研究发现,大多数研究均证实了投资与现金流之间具有较强的敏感性,但挖掘这种敏感性的根源却尚未达成一致的结论。尤其随着股权结构的引入,考虑到管理层内部持股的激励与堑壕效应、股权集中下控股股东的监督与侵占效应,该领域的研究纷繁复杂。但基于股权结构的研究是揭示这种敏感性的根源、探索非效率投资治理机制的有效途径。     

非线性优化问题与资源影子价格分析

首先,对条件极值问题中资源的影子价格进行了讨论,根据数学规划的Kuhn-Tucker条件,得出条件极值问题中的影子价格也表现为边际利润(拉格朗日乘子)。然后,讨论一般非线性规划问题中资源的影子价格和影子成本,并用证券投资组合优化模型为案例对收益率的边际成本(风险)进行分析。     

Budget impact model in moderate-to-severe psoriasis vulgaris assessing effects of calcipotriene and betamethasone dipropionate foam on per-patient standard of care costs

Aims: To develop a budget impact model (BIM) for estimating the financial impact of formulary adoption and uptake of calcipotriene and betamethasone dipropionate (C/BD) foam (0.005%/0.064%) on the costs of biologics for treating moderate-to-severe psoriasis vulgaris in a hypothetical US healthcare plan with 1 million members.

Methods: This BIM incorporated epidemiologic data, market uptake assumptions, and drug utilization costs, simulating the treatment mix for patients who are candidates for biologics before (Scenario #1) and after (Scenario #2) the introduction of C/BD foam. Predicted outcomes were expressed in terms of the annual cost of treatment (COT) and the COT per member per month (PMPM).

Results: At year 1, C/BD foam had the lowest per-patient cost ($9,913) necessary to achieve a Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI)-75 response compared with etanercept ($73,773), adalimumab ($92,871), infliximab ($34,048), ustekinumab ($83,975), secukinumab ($113,858), apremilast ($47,960), and ixekizumab ($62,707). Following addition of C/BD foam to the formulary, the annual COT for moderate-to-severe psoriasis would decrease by $36,112,572 (17.91%, from $201,621,219 to $165,508,647). The COT PMPM is expected to decrease by $3.00 (17.86%, from $16.80 to $13.80).

Limitations: Drug costs were based on Medi-Span reference pricing (January 21, 2016); differences in treatment costs for drug administration, laboratory monitoring, or adverse events were not accounted for. Potentially confounding were the definition of “moderate-to-severe” and the heterogeneous efficacy data. The per-patient cost for PASI-75 response at year 1 was estimated from short-term efficacy data for C/BD foam and apremilast only.

Conclusions: The introduction of C/BD foam is expected to decrease the annual COT for moderate-to-severe psoriasis treatable with biologics by $36,112,572 for a hypothetical US healthcare plan with 1 million plan members, and to lower the COT PMPM by $3.00.     

On the Sensitivity of Premiums and Reserves to Changes in Valuation Elements

Upon differentiating the Thiele differential equations and the equivalence condition with respect to some parameter appearing in the equations, one obtains differential equations for the derivatives of the state-wise reserves and the premium level with respect to the parameter. The solution to these equations measures the impact on premiums and reserves of a change in the parameter. Typically only numerical results can be obtained, but the method applies quite generally to multi-state policies and to virtually any parameter, and so represents a panacea in (the vast majority of) situations where analytical results are out of reach. Extensions to higher order derivatives and higher order conditional moments are straightforward. A difference method for computation is devised, and numerical results are reported for some practical cases.     

Semi-quantitative risk assessment of groundwater resources for emergency water supply

The submitted paper proposes the possible use of integrated semi-quantitative risk assessment of groundwater resources. There are risks resulting from both natural and anthropogenic hazard sources. Activation of these types of hazard sources can cause damage to, or destruction of, particular hydrogeological structures and technological equipment of selected groundwater resources suitable for the emergency drinking water supply of the population. The process of risk assessment is based on the described register of hazards, including semi-quantitative assessment of the frequency with which the assessed sources of hazards are activated, the register of sensitivity together with the semi-quantitative sensitivity assessment of selected threatened elements of the assessed water resource and the determination of their criticality. The semi-quantitative risk assessment should become one of the important criteria for classifying groundwater resources which have been proposed for emergency water supply. The classification carried out on the basis of the above-mentioned principle can contribute to faster selection and effective use of groundwater resources, as well as to the enhancement of emergency and crisis planning systems when the public system is either damaged or destroyed.     

科技创新与服务外包产业升级的关联弹性研究 ——基于创新城市与服务外包示范城市的数据分析

服务外包产业升级是以高科技、高附加值的高端服务及研发环节转移为主要特征的全球产业结构升级的必然趋势。基于服务外包产业知识密集型的产业特点,本文从科技创新的视角,选取全国服务外包示范城市与创新城市的交叉样本作为研究对象,通过主成分分析法以及逐步回归法确定了影响服务外包产业升级的重要科技创新因素,包括企业R&D经费支出占产品销售收入比重和人均GDP,具有潜在驱动倾向的科技创新因素包括大专院校在校学生数、专业技术人员占就业人员比重、R&D经费支出与GDP比例等。在此基础上,本文通过构建回归方程,计算分析自变量的弹性灵敏度指数,根据计算结果提出应从挖掘专业人才潜力、增加科技投入强度等方面推动服务外包产业的升级。     

中外合作办学中学生跨文化能力的培养路径

在中外合作办学迅速发展的背景下,跨文化能力成为我国21世纪人才必备的能力。因此要结合中外合作办学特点,实现跨文化教育理论的创新;加强中外合作办学管理,培养跨文化交流意识;制定合理的教学体系,综合运用多样化的教学环境,促进我国高等教育事业的发展。     

International Executives,Identity Strategies and Mobility in France and China

The strategies of multinational firms increasingly rely in Asia Pacific Region on processes of socialising their employees, who are seeking to develop and reinforce a “global” company culture, without endangering the cultures of local subsidiaries. Specialists have coined the term “cross-cultural management”. A role of “company ambassador” is allocated to a new generation of international executives in Asia whose mission will be to play an effective role as interface between head office its the subsidiaries – and between the subsidiaries themselves – once they have been suitably “impregnated” with the company culture and the particular features of different markets.

The repeated experience of international mobility that executives live through means that the individual may well be living in conflict with previous identities. It is true to say that nobody stays long in an internationally mobile situation without running the risk of there being strong divergence between the domestic and residential worlds, the life of the community and the world of the company. This article has been written as a result of in-depth research into the way executives of a large French oil company built up their identities and as a result of a study examines intercultural learning based on French expatriates' experience in China. We consider how French expatriates experience China and what imaginary underlies their perception. Analysis of daily socialization and interaction processes shows intercultural competence develops along distinct immersion stages: immersion–adjustment, immersion–comprehension, and immersion–integration. Individually, adjustment and comprehension support intercultural practice. The ultimate immersion stage leads to enlightened pragmatism stemming from “nomadic intelligence”. Where a researcher in the social sciences or a business man might have expected to have found an homogenous international elite, international executives building an “international system”, the heterogeneous nature of the identity strategies of international executives give the lie to the myth of the large company as a space for the irreversible assimilation of its members. At an individual level, being an international executive is a unique way of living the experience abroad, or rather, several different ways of experiencing identity strategies linked to the manipulation of one's ethnicity in a context of significant geographical and functional mobility.     

某型末制导炮弹惯导段弹道对气动参数灵敏度分析

目前的灵敏度分析往往需要依赖于某种寻优算法,并要求目标函数能求取偏导数。而末制导炮弹左右舵片上的控制力是突变的,无法对其求取偏导数。为解决这个问题并保证灵敏度分析精度,本文提出用解析法与有限差分法法有机结合的方法对气动参数进行灵敏度分析。结果表明,该方法能很好的解决了该弹道灵敏度分析问题,且分析速度快、精度高。     

Does consumption respond to predicted increases in cash-hand availability?: Evidence from the Italian “severance pay”

We examine whether Italian household consumption exhibits excess sensitivity to “severance pay”, a sizable lump-sum that workers receive at job termination. We find no evidence of excess sensitivity of non-durable expenditure to this anticipated cash-in-hand change.